Predicting a unanimous US Supreme Court decision

I rarely predict that the US Supreme Court will decide a case unanimously. I'm doing so now.

On October 4, 2024, the Court granted certiorari in Ames v. Ohio Dep’t of Youth Servs. [Briefs]

Marlean Ames is a heterosexual woman who alleged that her employer—the Ohio Department of Youth Services—discriminated against her because of her sexual orientation in violation of Title VII. The 6th Circuit upheld summary judgment in favor of the Department. [Opinion here]

Ames interviewed to be the Department’s Bureau Chief of Quality, but she didn't get it. Four days later, the assistant director and the HR administrator terminated her from her existing position and demoted her. The Department then selected a gay man for Ames' former position and selected a gay woman as its Bureau Chief of Quality.

The 6th Circuit said it was easy for Ames to make out a prima facie case.

Just one problem – In order for a heterosexual to prevail she must also show “background circumstances to support the suspicion that the defendant is that unusual employer who discriminates against the majority.” Typically this is done by showing either (1) that the decisionmaker was gay or (2) that there was a pattern of discrimination against heterosexuals.

First, Ames was terminated from her previous position by two individuals who are both heterosexual.

Second, Ames’s only evidence of a pattern of discrimination against heterosexuals is her own demotion and the denial of the Bureau Chief position.

This decision is plainly wrong.

(1) Adding the "background circumstances" requirement has no basis in Title VII's text. That's the sort of thing the Supreme Court tends to be quite unhappy about.

(2) Requiring "background circumstances" for heterosexuals does exactly what Title VII forbids—treats some individuals worse than others.

Therefore, I predict a unanimous reversal.